Major improvement in thyroid cancer survival of elderly patients in the Nordic countries.

OBJECTIVES: We describe age-specific survival in thyroid cancer (TC) from Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden over a 50-year period. DESIGN: Population-based survival study. METHODS: Relative 5-year survival data were obtained from the NORDCAN database for the years 1972-2021. RESULTS: In the first period 1972-1976, 5-year survival in TC in Finland, Norway, and Sweden was 90% or higher, but a strong negative step-wise age gradient was observed, which was worse for men than women. Over time, survival increased, and in the final period, 2017-2021, survival for all women and Danish men up to age 69 years was about 90% or higher and, for men from the other countries, only marginally lower. Even for older women survival reached 80%, for older men somewhat less. CONCLUSIONS: Age disadvantage in TC survival was for the most part corrected over the 50-year period, and the remaining task is to boost survival for the oldest patients.

Critical survival periods in prostate cancer in Sweden explored by conditional survival analysis.

BACKROUND: We wanted to characterize conditional survival in prostate cancer (PC) in Sweden around and after 2005 when the vast increase in incidence due to the opportunistic testing for prostate specific antigen (PSA) culminated. We hypothesize that analyzing survival data during that time period may help interpret survival trends. We focus on stage-specific analysis using conditional survival in order to define the periods when deaths most commonly occurred. METHODS: Data on PC patients were obtained from the Swedish cancer registry for analysis of 1-, 2.5- and 5-year relative survival and conditional relative survival between years 2004 and 2018. Tumor-node-metastatic stage classification at diagnosis was used to specify survival. RESULTS: Small improvements were observed in stage- and age-related relative survival duriring the study period. Applying conditional relative survival showed that survival in stage T3 up to 2.5 years was better than survival between years 2.5 and 5. Survival in stage T4 was approximately equal in the first and the subsequent 2.5-year period. For M1, the first 2.5 year survival period was worse than the subsequent one. The proportion of high risk and M1 disease in old patients (80+ years) remained very high and their survival improved only modestly. CONCLUSIONS: The data indicate that M1 metastases kill more patients in the first 2.5 years than between years 2.5 and 5 after diagnosis; T4 deaths are equal in the two periods, and in T3 mortality in the first 2.5-year period is lower than between years 2.5 and 5 after diagnosis. Conditional survival could be applied to explore critical survival periods even past 5 years after diagnoses and to monitor success in novel diagnostic and treatment practices. Improvement of survival in elderly patients may require clinical input.

Genetic And Environmental Associations Of Nonspecific Chromosomal Aberrations.

Nonspecific structural chromosomal aberrations (CAs) are found in around 1% of circulating lymphocytes from healthy individuals but the frequency may be higher after exposure to carcinogenic chemicals or radiation. CAs have been used in the monitoring of persons exposed to genotoxic agents and radiation. Previous studies on occupationally exposed individuals have shown associations between the frequency of CAs in peripheral blood lymphocytes and subsequent cancer risk. The cause for CA formation are believed to be unrepaired or insufficiently repaired DNA double-strand breaks or other DNA damage, and additionally telomere shortening. CAs include chromosome (CSAs) and chromatid type aberrations (CTAs). In the present review, we first describe the types of CAs, the conventional techniques used for their detection and some aspects of interpreting the results. We then focus on germline genetic variation in the frequency and type of CAs measured in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in healthy individuals in relation to occupational and smoking-related exposure compared to non-exposed referents. The associations (at p<10-5) on 1473 healthy individuals were broadly classified in candidate genes from functional pathways related to DNA damage response/repair, including PSMA1, UBR5, RRM2B, PMS2P4, STAG3L4, BOD1, COPRS and FTO; another group included genes related to apoptosis, cell proliferation, angiogenesis and tumorigenesis, COPB1, NR2C1, COPRS, RHOT1, ITGB3, SYK, and SEMA6A; a third small group mapped to genes KLF7, SEMA5A and ITGB3 which were related to autistic traits, known to manifest frequent CAs. Dedicated studies on 153 DNA repair genes showed associations for some 30 genes, expression of which could be modified by the implicated variants. We finally point out that monitoring of CAs is so far the only method of assessing cancer risk in healthy human populations, and the use of the technology should be made more attractive by developing automated performance steps and incorporating artificial intelligence methods into the scoring.

Transcriptomic Profiling for Prognostic Biomarkers in Early-Stage Squamous Cell Lung Cancer (SqCLC).

Squamous cell lung carcinoma (SqCLC) is associated with high mortality and limited treatment options. Identification of therapeutic targets and prognostic biomarkers is still lacking. This research aims to analyze the transcriptomic profile of SqCLC samples and identify the key genes associated with tumorigenesis, overall survival (OS), and a profile of the tumor-infiltrating immune cells. Differential gene expression analysis, pathway enrichment analysis, and Gene Ontology analysis on RNA-seq data obtained from FFPE tumor samples (N = 23) and healthy tissues (N = 3) were performed (experimental cohort). Validation of the results was conducted on publicly available gene expression data using TCGA LUSC (N = 225) and GTEx healthy donors' cohorts (N = 288). We identified 1133 upregulated and 644 downregulated genes, common for both cohorts. The most prominent upregulated genes were involved in cell cycle and proliferation regulation pathways (MAGEA9B, MAGED4, KRT, MMT11/13), while downregulated genes predominately belonged to immune-related pathways (DEFA1B, DEFA1, DEFA3). Results of the survival analysis, conducted on the validation cohort and commonly deregulated genes, indicated that overexpression of HOXC4 (p < 0.001), LLGL1 (p = 0.0015), and SLC4A3 (p = 0.0034) is associated with worse OS in early-stage SqCLC patients. In contrast, overexpression of GSTZ1 (p = 0.0029) and LILRA5 (p = 0.0086) was protective, i.e., associated with better OS. By applying a single-sample gene-set enrichment analysis (ssGSEA), we identified four distinct immune subtypes. Immune cell distribution suggests that the memory T cells (central and effector) and follicular helper T cells could serve as important stratification parameters.

Survival in oral and pharyngeal cancers is catching up with laryngeal cancer in the NORDIC countries through a half century.

BACKGROUND: Cancers of the head and neck (HN) are heterogeneous tumors with incidence rates varying globally. In Northern Europe oral and oropharyngeal cancers are the most common individual types. Survival for HN varies by individual tumor type but for most of them survival trends are not well known over extended periods of time. METHODS: Data for a retrospective survival study were obtained for Danish, Finnish, Norwegian, and Swedish patients from the NORDCAN database from 1971 to 2020. Relative 1- and 5-year survival rates and 5/1-year conditional survival for years 2-5 were calculated. RESULTS: Both 1- and 5-year survival improved for all HN cancers but only marginally for laryngeal cancer. For the other cancers a 50-year increase in 5-year survival was about 30% units for nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal cancers, 20% units for oral cancer and somewhat less for hypopharyngeal cancer. CONCLUSIONS: 5-year survival reached about 65% for all HN cancers, except for hypopharyngeal cancer (30%). Human papilloma virus infection is becoming a dominant risk factor for the rapidly increasing oropharyngeal cancer, the prevention of which needs to emphasize oral sex as a route of infection.

Long-Term Periodic and Conditional Survival Trends in Prostate, Testicular, and Penile Cancers in the Nordic Countries, Marking Timing of Improvements.

Survival studies are important tools for cancer control, but long-term survival data on high-quality cancer registries are lacking for all cancers, including prostate (PC), testicular (TC), and penile cancers. Using generalized additive models and data from the NORDCAN database, we analyzed 1- and 5-year relative survival for these cancers in Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO), and Sweden (SE) over a 50-year period (1971-2020). We additionally estimated conditional 5/1-year survival for patients who survived the 1st year after diagnosis. Survival improved early for TC, and 5-year survival reached 90% between 1985 (SE) and 2000 (FI). Towards the end of the follow-up, the TC patients who had survived the 1st year survived the next 4 years with comparable probability to the background population. For PC, the 90% landmark was reached between 2000 (FI) and after 2010 (DK). For penile cancer, 5-year survival never reached the 90% landmark, and the improvements in survival were modest at best. For TC, early mortality requires attention, whereas late mortality should be tackled for PC. For penile cancer, the relatively high early mortality may suggest delays in diagnosis and would require more public awareness and encouragement of patients to seek medical opinion. In FI, TC and penile cancer patients showed roughly double risk of dying compared to the other Nordic countries, which warrants further study and clinical attention.

Early mortality critically impedes improvements in thyroid cancer survival through a half century.

OBJECTIVES: We analyze survival in thyroid cancer from Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO), and Sweden (SE) over a 50-year period (1971-2020), and additionally consider concomitant changes in incidence and mortality. DESIGN: Population-based survival study. METHODS: Relative 1-, 5/1 (conditional)-, and 5-year survival data were obtained from the NORDCAN database for years 1971-2020. Incidence and mortality rates were also assessed. RESULTS: A novel consistent observation was that 1-year survival was worse than 5/1-year survival but the difference between these decreased with time. Relative 1-year survival in thyroid cancer (mean for the 4 countries) reached 92.7% for men and 95.6% for women; 5-year survival reached 88.0% for men and 93.7% for women. Survival increased most for DK which started at a low level and reached the best survival at the end. Male and female incidence rates for thyroid cancer increased 3- and 4-fold, respectively. In the same time, mortality halved for men and for women, it decreased by 2/3. CONCLUSIONS: We documented worse relative survival in the first year than in the 4 subsequent years, most likely because of rare anaplastic cancer. Overall survival in thyroid cancer patients increased in the Nordic countries in the course of 50 years; 5-year survival was close to 90% for men and close to 95% for women. Even though overdiagnosis may explain some of 5-year survival increase, it is unlikely to influence the substantial increase in 1-year survival. The unmet need is to increase 1-year survival by diagnosing and treating aggressive tumors before metastatic spread.

Steady survival improvements in soft tissue and bone sarcoma in the Nordic countries through 50 years.

PURPOSE: Sarcomas are rare cancers with many subtypes in soft tissues, bone and cartilage. International survival trends in these cancers are not well known. We present 50-year survival trends for soft tissue sarcoma (STS) and bone sarcoma (BS) in Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO) and Sweden (SE). METHODS: Relative 1-, 5/1 conditional- and 5-year survival data were obtained from the NORDCAN database for years 1971-20. We additionally estimated annual changes in survival rates and determined significant break points. RESULTS: In the last period, 2016-20, 5-year survival in STS was best for NO men (74.6%) and FI women (71.1%). For the rarer BS, survival rates for SE men (72.0%) and DK women (71.1%) were best. Survival in BS was lower than that in STS in 1971-75 and the difference remained in 2016-20 for men, but for women the rates were almost equal. Sex- and country-specific differences in survival in STS were small. The 50-year improvement in 5-year survival in STS was highest in NO men, 34.0 % units and FI women, 30.0 % units. The highest improvements in BS were in SE men 26.2 % units and in FI women 29.2 % units. CONCLUSIONS: The steady development in survival over the half century suggests contribution by stepwise improvements in diagnostics, treatment and care. The 10-15% mortality in the first year probably indicates diagnostic delays which could be improved by organizing patient pathways for aggressive rare diseases. Early diagnosis would also reduce metastatic disease and breakthroughs in treatment are a current challenge.

Conditional Survival in Prostate Cancer in the Nordic Countries Elucidates the Timing of Improvements.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of prostate cancer (PC) increased vastly as a result of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. Survival in PC improved in the PSA-testing era, but changes in clinical presentation have hampered the interpretation of the underlying causes. DESIGN: We analyzed survival trends in PC using data from the NORDCAN database for Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO) and Sweden (SE) by analyzing 1-, 5- and 10-year relative survival and conditional relative survival over the course of 50 years (1971-2020). RESULTS: In the pre-PSA era, survival improved in FI and SE and improved marginally in NO but not in DK. PSA testing began toward the end of the 1980s; 5-year survival increased by approximately 30%, and 10-year survival improved even more. Conditional survival from years 6 to 10 (5 years) was better than conditional survival from years 2 to 5 (4 years), but by 2010, this difference disappeared in countries other than DK. Survival in the first year after diagnosis approached 100%; by year 5, it was 95%; and by year 10, it was 90% in the best countries, NO and SE. CONCLUSIONS: In spite of advances in diagnostics and treatment, further attention is required to improve PC survival.

Conditional survival in breast cancer up to 10 years in the Nordic countries.

BACKGROUND: Survival in breast cancer (BC) has developed favorably but late recurrences are still a problem. METHODS: We model survival data from the NORDCAN database and analyze 1-, 5-, and 10-year relative survival and 5/1- and 10/5-year conditional survival in BC from Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO), and Sweden (SE) between 1971 and 2020. Conditional survival measures survival in those who had survived year 1 to reach year 5 (5/1), or in those who had survived year 5 to reach year 10 (10/5). RESULTS: Almost all survival metrics were best for SE but survival in all countries improved in the course of time approaching the SE levels which were 98.3% for 1-year, 92.3% for 5-year, and 87.8% for 10-year survival. Conditional 10/5-year survival, covering 5 years, was better than 5/1-year survival, covering 4 years. A contributing factor is most likely the high rate of recurrence in period 2-5 years. The difference was observed for all countries but for DK 10/5-year survival approached 1-year survival and for NO and SE 10/5-year survival was only barely better than 5/1-year survival. The explanation to this was the excellent 10/5-year survival in DK compared to SE and particularly to NO. Literature search suggested that the reason for the relatively low 10/5-year survival in NO might be stagnant survival development in old patients. CONCLUSIONS: We assume that late mortality is critically limiting survival in BC and either interference with the late metastatic process or effective treatment will be key to future improvements in BC survival.

Survival, Incidence, and Mortality Trends in Female Cancers in the Nordic Countries.

Background: Female cancers cover common breast cancers, relatively common endometrial, ovarian, and cervical cancers and rare vulvar cancer. Survival in these cancers is known to be relatively good compared to all cancers but long-term studies for these cancers are rare, and to fill the gap, here, we generate survival data through 50 years. Materials and Methods: We applied generalized additive models to data from the NORDCAN database and analyzed 1- and 5-year relative survival for these cancers in Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO), and Sweden (SE) over half a century (1971-2020). Conditional 5/1-year survival for patients who survived the 1st year after diagnosis and annual survival changes was also estimated. Results: In 2016-20, 5-year survival was best for breast cancer reaching 92.3% (in SE), followed by endometrial cancer at 86.1% (SE) and cervical cancer at 75.6% (NO). Improvement in 5-year survival over the 50 years was the largest for ovarian cancer (20% units), finally reaching 52.9% (SE). For vulvar cancer, the final survival was between 70 and 73%. The best 5-year survival rate in 2016-20 was recorded for SE in breast, endometrial, and ovarian cancers; NO showed the highest rate for cervical and DK for vulvar cancers. DK had the lowest survival for breast and ovarian cancers, and FI, for the other cancers. Conclusions: The overall survival development appeared to consist of continuous improvements, most likely because of novel treatment and imaging techniques as well as overall organization of patient care. The large survival improvement for ovarian cancer was probably achieved by a surgical focus on tumors spread in the peritoneal cavity. For cervical and vulvar cancers, the high early mortality requires attention and could be helped by raising increasing public awareness of early symptoms in these cancers and developing pathways for fast initiation of treatment.

Survival in Kidney and Bladder Cancers in Four Nordic Countries through a Half Century.

Kidney and bladder cancers share etiology and relatively good recent survival, but long-term studies are rare. We analyzed survival for these cancers in Denmark, Finland, Norway (NO), and Sweden (SE) over a 50-year period (1971-2020). Relative 1- and 5-year survival data were obtained from the NORDCAN database, and we additionally calculated conditional 5/1-year survival. In 2016-2020, 5-year survivals for male kidney (79.0%) and bladder (81.6%) cancers were best in SE. For female kidney cancer, NO survival reached 80.0%, and for bladder cancer, SE survival reached 76.1%. The magnitude of 5-year survival improvements during the 50-year period in kidney cancer was over 40% units; for bladder cancer, the improvement was over 20% units. Survival in bladder cancer was worse for women than for men, particularly in year 1. In both cancers, deaths in the first year were approximately as many as in the subsequent 4 years. We could document an impressive development for kidney cancer with tripled male and doubled female 5-year survival in 50 years. Additionally, for bladder cancer, a steady improvement was recorded. The current challenges are to curb early mortality and target treatment to reduce long-term mortality.

Population-Attributable Fractions of Personal Comorbidities for Liver, Gallbladder, and Bile Duct Cancers.

BACKGROUND: We aim to estimate population-attributable fractions (PAF) for 13 comorbidities potentially predisposing to hepatobiliary cancer of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), gallbladder cancer (GBC), cancers of the intrahepatic and extrahepatic bile ducts (ICC and ECC), and ampullary cancer. METHODS: Patients were identified from the Swedish Inpatient Register from 1987 to 2018 and cancers from the Swedish Cancer Registry from 1997 through 2018. PAFs were calculated for each comorbidity-associated cancer using a cohort study design. RESULTS: For male HCC, the major individual comorbidities (PAF > 10) were diabetes, alcohol-related liver disease, and hepatitis C virus infection. For female HCC, diabetes and autoimmune diseases were important contributors. For female GBC, gallstone disease was an overwhelming contributor, with a PAF of 30.57%, which was also important for men. The overall PAF for male ICC was almost two times higher than the female one. For ECC and ampullary cancer, infection of bile ducts was associated with the highest PAF. CONCLUSIONS: The 13 comorbidities accounted for 50% or more of the potential etiological pathways of each hepatobiliary cancer except female ICC. The underlying convergent mechanism for these cancers may be chronic inflammation lasting for decades and thus offering possibilities for intervention and disease monitoring.

Germline variants of the genes involved in NF-kB activation are associated with the risk of COPD and lung cancer development.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer (LC) are closely related diseases associated with smoking history and dysregulated immune response. However, not all smokers develop the disease, indicating that genetic susceptibility could be important. Therefore, the aim of this study was to search for the potential overlapping genetic biomarkers, with a focus on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located in the regulatory regions of immune-related genes. Additionally, the aim was to see if an identified SNP has potentially an effect on proinflamma-tory cytokine concentration in the serum of COPD patients. We extracted summary data of variants in 1511 immune-related genes from COPD and LC genome-wide association studies (GWAS) from the UK Biobank. The LC data had 203 cases, patients diagnosed with LC, and 360 938 controls, while COPD data had 1 897 cases and 359 297 controls. Assuming 1 association/gene, SNPs with a p-value < 3.3 × 10-5 were considered statistically significantly associated with the disease. We identified seven SNPs located in different genes (BAG6, BTNL2, TNF, HCP5, MICB, NCR3, ABCF1, TCF7L1) to be associated with the COPD risk and two with the LC risk (HLA-C, HLA-B), with statistical significance. We also identified two SNPs located in the IL2RA gene associated with LC (rs2386841; p = 1.86 × 10-4) and COPD (rs11256442; p = 9.79 × 10-3) but with lower significance. Functional studies conducted on COPD patients showed that RNA expression of IL2RA, IFNγ and related proinflammatory cytokines in blood serum did not correlate with a specific genotype. Although results presented in this study do not fully support our hypothesis, it is worth to mention that the identified genes/SNPs that were associated with either COPD or LC risk, all were involved in the activation of the NF-κB transcription factor which is closely related to the regulation of the inflammatory response, a condition associated with both pathologies.

Survival in Lung Cancer in the Nordic Countries Through A Half Century.

Objective: Lung cancer is often diagnosed at an advanced stage and survival has been poor, although long-term studies have been rare. We analyzed data on survival in lung cancer from Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden over a 50-year period (1971-2020). Methods: Relative 1- and 5-year survival data were obtained from the NORDCAN database for 1971-2020. We used generalized additive models to estimate survival trends over time and uncertainty of these estimates. We additionally calculated conditional survival from the 1st to 5th year (5/1-year), estimated annual changes in survival rates, and determined significant breaking points. Results: In 2016-2020, 5-year survival rate for lung cancer was best for Norwegian men (26.6%) and women (33.2%). The sex difference was significant and it was found for each country. Survival improved modestly until the year 2000, after which time survival curves increased steeply and kept the linear shape to the end of follow-up, indicating consistent improvement in survival. Survival curves for 1- and 5/1-year survival were almost superimposable, indicating that deaths in the first year were approximately as many as in the subsequent 4 years, thus marking sustained long-term survival. Conclusion: We could document a positive development in lung cancer survival with steep upward trends after the year 2000. Intensions for curative treatment have been increasing and the outcomes have been improving with the help of novel imaging methods. Pathways for facile patient access to treatment have been instituted. Close to 90% of the patients are ever smokers. National anti-smoking acts and alerting people who smoke about early symptoms may be beneficial, as metastatic lung cancer remains difficult to cure.

Do GWAS-Identified Risk Variants for Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Influence Overall Patient Survival and Disease Progression?

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is the most common leukemia among adults worldwide. Although genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have uncovered the germline genetic component underlying CLL susceptibility, the potential use of GWAS-identified risk variants to predict disease progression and patient survival remains unexplored. Here, we evaluated whether 41 GWAS-identified risk variants for CLL could influence overall survival (OS) and disease progression, defined as time to first treatment (TTFT) in a cohort of 1039 CLL cases ascertained through the CRuCIAL consortium. Although this is the largest study assessing the effect of GWAS-identified susceptibility variants for CLL on OS, we only found a weak association of ten single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with OS (p < 0.05) that did not remain significant after correction for multiple testing. In line with these results, polygenic risk scores (PRSs) built with these SNPs in the CRuCIAL cohort showed a modest association with OS and a low capacity to predict patient survival, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.57. Similarly, seven SNPs were associated with TTFT (p < 0.05); however, these did not reach the multiple testing significance threshold, and the meta-analysis with previous published data did not confirm any of the associations. As expected, PRSs built with these SNPs showed reduced accuracy in prediction of disease progression (AUROC = 0.62). These results suggest that susceptibility variants for CLL do not impact overall survival and disease progression in CLL patients.

Survival in melanoma in the nordic countries into the era of targeted and immunological therapies.

OBJECTIVES: Survival in melanoma has been increasing and the most recent interest is to observe the population-level impact of novel targeted therapies and immunotherapy. We analysed survival in melanoma from Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO) and Sweden (SE) over a 50-years period (1971-2020). METHODS: Relative 1-5/1- and 5-year survival data were obtained from the NORDCAN database for the years 1971-2020. We estimated annual changes in survival rates and determined significant breaking points for trends. RESULTS: Survival in melanoma has reached the point where 1-year survival is approaching 100% (men 97.5-98.6%, women 98.4-99.3%, depending on the country) and 5-year survival is 93% for men (91.5-95.2%) and 96% for women (95.3-97.2%). The highest survival figures were for DK. Significant increases in both 1- and 5-year survival were observed in most countries even towards the end of the follow-up (from 2006 to 2010-2011-2015 and further to 2016-2020). CONCLUSIONS: The main increase in melanoma survival took place up to year 1990, which was probably largely achieved through successful population campaigns for sun protection and programmes for early detection of lesions. Survival increased again after year 2000 up to the last period 2016-2020. This late development coincided with the introduction of targeted therapies using BRAF and BRAF/MEK inhibitors, and towards the end of the time period availability of checkpoint inhibitors. The success of melanoma treatment in DK was mostly likely due to the efficient use of modern therapies and to the centralised treatment for metastatic disease.